EV shift: our energy grid can cope
In any discussions about when – and how quickly – the world will see a shift from fossil fuel-powered cars to vehicles powered mainly by electricity, the logistical uncertainties surrounding this transformation are what tend to push the timing out to somewhere in the distant future. But a new study by AGL Energy is seeking to remove one of these uncertainties, at least for Australia, by showing that broad-scale EV uptake would have a relatively minimal impact on the nation's electricity market.
In a working paper titled "Electric Vehicles in the NEM: energy market and policy implications," AGL says that "the correct mix of pricing, policy and regulatory settings should ensure a smooth transition to the decarbonisation of the transport fleet." And while there might be some specific challenges at a neighbourhood level, it finds that "the medium term aggregate impact on the electricity grid is likely to be relatively minor."
The report, the 27th in AGL's Applied Economic and Policy Research Working Paper Series, aimed to review the electricity load impacts arising from growth in the passenger EV market, the implications this had for the National Electricity Market (NEM), and to explore the role that policies, regulations and companies could play in the marketplace. AGL is, of course, part of a consortium with EV infrastrcuture company Better Place, Macquarie Capital Group (and more recently GE Australia) that joined forces in 2008 to raise $1 billion towards the deployment of an EV network powered by renewables.
AGL takes it as read that the shift to EVs will happen – although it clarifies that "given the dominant incumbent position of existing transportation technologies" the internal combustion engine (ICE) is likely to hold significant market share for decades to come. "Over the long run, the electric vehicle market seems poised to proliferate, driven by pressures to decarbonise the transport fleet, rising fossil fuel prices, improving operating efficiencies and falling costs of batteries," it says.
And it says that when this shift comes, driven largely by the passenger vehicle sector, the mix will be mainly battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). "Regardless of the type of EV, it is likely that the vast majority of all kilometres driven in EVs will be electric, since the daily use of vehicles in Australia is usually well within the electric range of most EVs," the report says.
The analysis has assumed that 90 per cent of all kilometres travelled in any type of EV will be electric, allowing for the nonelectric component of all PHEV vehicles within the EV fleet. So how much extra power demand will there be? And how will it be met?
The reports says that an average residential customer in Australia's NEM states currently uses between 6-7MWh of electricity per year. while an EV driven 15,900km per year, the average distance for privately owned passenger vehicles in Australia, will consume an additional 2.7MWh each year. Therefore, it finds, ownership of an EV could increase an average household's electricity consumption by up to 40 per cent.
The report says that, while on an average day, charging is likely to create a new daily peak for individual households with an EV, "of critical importance is the fact that this new average daily peak remains below the maximum peak demand for an individual household during the year." Additionally, it says, this incremental demand would only apply to those households with an EV, which even in AGL's high uptake scenario would only account for roughly one household in four.
"These findings are very significant and underscore the notion that there should be more than sufficient existing generation, transmission and distribution network capacity to manage such spikes, provided that the combination of smart meters and critical peak pricing form part of the energy market policy fabric for EV owners," says the report. Although it clarifies that there may be localised "hot-spots" in streets where EV uptake is concentrated at rates greater than societal average.
The report goes on to say that "even if all EVs from the shock scenario [AGL's model based on the uptake of 6.8 million EVs by 2030] were to hit the NEM on the highest winter demand day in 2009/2010, residential demand during EV charging would still have been lower than the peak that day, provided no charging occurred during critical peak times."
And there's even an upside, in AGL's scenario, which says that because the utilisation rate of this infrastructure would increase with the uptake of EVs, this would help drive down the unit price to the benefit of all electricity users. "This is a positive market externality that should be considered by policy makers," says the report.
Another "AGL identifies, dependent upon the introduction of smart metering, is that "the introduction of EVs in combination with ToU pricing facilitated by the introduction of a smart meter has the potential to improve network and generation utilisation, which in turn could lower unit costs – reducing electricity prices for all consumers.
"When charging is conducted during off-peak periods, EV charging does not contribute to peak demand, but instead, is concentrated during periods when demand is lowest. This in turn has quite a beneficial effect; it improves the overall utilisation of electricity infrastructure in the NEM by around 1 percentage point. In other words, the adoption of EVs may lower unit pricing through an improvement in the capital utilisation rate.
"When 'convenience charging' occurs, the additional demand is spread more evenly throughout the year, and marginally increases peak demand. In this case, the utilisation rate improvements are still present, but are lower than when off-peak charging (as may be incentivised by ToU pricing) is employed."
And then there's the green angle. AGL's report finds that EVs charged using accredited AGL GreenPower (as at 2010) will produce 2kg CO2e per 100km due to losses from electricity transmission and distribution, which works out as a saving of over 90 per cent compared to the average vehicle.
All this said, the report notes in its conclusion one of the biggest roadblocks standing in the way of widespread EV uptake: a lack of popular support.
"Without EV owner support, the EV industry won't take off. Customer interests should be at the forefront of the industry's thinking. Customer choice should be maintained. EV drivers should be offered simple solutions for charging, electricity provision and pricing.
"Interoperable charging equipment should suit the variety of EVs expected in the Australian marketplace. And with care, the energy supply industry will be able to meet the needs of EV drivers and make optimal use of the grid for all electricity consumers, avoiding unintended consequences or market failure."
Comments on this article
Graphene ultracapacitors
David, the graphene ultra capacitor research has only just started. The theoretical energy density possible from tightly folded graphene is much higher I believe. What they've tried so far is crude, from what I've read. Effectively just taking this new wonder substance, scrunching it in a ball and seeing what happens.
Power required for EVs seems to be quite a lot
The RAV4 EV, could store about 27kWh, and took 5 hours to charge, but one needed a 220V/30A industrial circuit for this (USA).
In Australia, one would need a 240V/20A circuit such as is supplied for your stove, and that would still take about 7.5 hours. Using a standard 10A GPO, it would require about 12 hours to charge the battery.
If this RAV4 is a reasonable model for the amount of power that EVs will require, and the market moves to EVs rather than hybrids, then that is a lot of electricity.
My gut feel says that it wont happen - not like this, anyway.
Ultracapacitors hold less than Lithium Ion batteries
The highest power density, stored in a Graphene based ultracapacitor, so far, is 490 kJoules/kg. That was achieved this year:
See:
http://www.gizmag.com/graphene-supercapacitor-energy-density-record/17188/
Note that the claim made in this news article only claims an energy density on par with NiMH (not Lithium).
Lithium-Ion batteries, can store up to 900kJ/kg, though the term Lithium-Ion refers to a range of Lithium Ion chemistries with energy densitys that vary between 360 to 900 kJ/kg.
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium-ion_battery
Contrast this to petrol which has approx 47.2MJ/kg. Assuming a Carnot efficiency of 40%, that represents about 18.9MJ/kg deliverable to the drive train.
See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
Whilst I am a fan of EVs, and I expect to own one someday, that latter figure shows that for serious load pulling, ie by trucks, tractors and the like, we will be stuck with burning some kind of fuel for quite a while.
For me, one stumbling block is that with family and a girlfriend in Canberra, and myself in Sydney, I would want to go 300km on a single charge. It is my understanding that we are not there yet, or am I wrong?
That, though, is the lesser of two stumbling blocks. The more important one is that I could not afford to buy the cheapest new car on the market, much less a new EV or new Hybrid. "Mature", "pre-washed", Commodores (usually called "bombs") are the best I can afford. :-)
AGL down play?
I think AGL is under playing the increase in domestic electricity demand from EVs. To start with, most homes these days have two cars not one. This means the daily electricity demand could double for some households.
I haven't read the AGL paper but it seems unlikely that we could double electricity demand without beefing up the distribution network. As more homes want fast charging they will be requesting 3 phase (415 V) connections.
Perhaps as an electricity retailer AGL may not be an independent analyst on the subject of EVs.
Nuclear myths (reply to Geoff Henderson)
"...the most expensive option on earth...any other available technology will always out compete it"
Wrong. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source
"It's not safe"
Wrong. http://world-nuclear.org/education/ehs.html
"no waste disposal means"
Wrong. Integral Fast Reactors eat waste and produce power. http://www.amazon.com/Prescription-Planet-Painless-Remedy-Environmental/...
"massive social opposition" yet in the same breath you demand "you have to change something(s), and our transport modes and choices need fixing" and "Missing most is social and political will"?! Why is this not applicable to nuclear?
"If the world switched to nuclear tomorrow by building a hundred thousand nuclear plants, known reserves of uranium might last 5 years."
Wrong and wrong: http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/10/14/2060-nuclear-scenarios-p3/. Try more like 50,000 years: http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/09/18/ifr-fad-7/
"The next gen nuclear plants? They don't exist yet - the plants being built in the US are old tech." Er, yes, that would be implicit in the word 'next'. Your point?
Finally, even 20 years would be a hell of a lot better than a 'centennial vision'.
Thorium dis-information
Hello Mark,
Thanks for the article. Use of non-peak grid usage times makes a lot of sense and is a key measure to increase the effiiciency of our energy usage, however the caveat is that EV cars will be charged only during non-peak times. This is hardly a given, and chargging EVs during peak usage times will cause energy retailers to use that as an excuse to increase grid capacity and consequently prices.
I doubt very much that government policy can protect the consumer either. Legislation is a slippery slope.
With regard to Geoff Henderson's post, Nuclear power is NOT the most expensive option when you look at the real costs of wind, solar and other 'renewables', and Thorium and LFTR technology is orders of magnitude safer even than existing nuclear. I urge you, Mark, to look into Thorium and LFTR technology for yourself. You will be surprised!
Kind Regards, Matt.
EV Noise
The Nissan leaf has a noise system that can be turned off.
The sound is in an eprom and I have seen a mod to change the sound.
One EV owner told me that the main problem she found was in a shopping centre car park. Two women stopped to talk behind her and did not hear here switch on the car so to back out she had to get out and ask them to move.
She has since had her husband fit a reversing beeper to her car.
In the UK many do not have a garage and park in the street and that is a problem for EV owners.
The Nissen leaf will be sold in Australia in the 1st quarter of 2012 and the Ford Focus in the 4th quarter of 2012.
There is I am told a tax problem. The burocracy has forced up the price.
Most EVs will be charged overnight as the slower charging rate is better for the batteries and the cars will be mostly commuters, school and shopping transport.
Ultracapacitors
In the future EVs will use ultra capacitors containing the new wonder substances being developed such as graphene, as "batteries". These have none of the toxic waste issues of batteries, and can be charged almost intstantaneously if you can generate the current. They will also have much longer life. What this means is that it will be feasible to have two "batteries", one in the vehicle and one at home or at "service stations". The one at home or at stations can be charged by decentralised or home PV or other renewable power or take power from the grid at the cheapest times, but not limited only to night time. Then when you need charging for your car it takes as quick as filling it with petrol.
Have enough of these spread around and you solve the range problems of the EV. Hell, you could even help a buddy out with a car to car transfer with the right cable attachment if you saw someone run out of juice on the side of the road. Electricity will be so cheap that this will be a common occurence.
Oh and of course all the ultra capacitors plugged into a smart grid can be used to regulate the power and make it more efficent as well as store excess energy from renewables to get you through the cloudy still days.
Why charge off peak?PV can handle it.
Based on the above load calculations each EV driver is adding 7.4kW hours extra per day to their energy usage.
Add a 2.5kW PV system at work while the car parked.End of day drive home. Too easy
The "Shortist" distance between two points is a 'straight line'!
Richard, since you're content switching to electric you may like to know that all well-equipped auto electricians will have a 'growler' or two in their arsenal. You may be able to borrow or hire one for a while to see if it suits your needs. 'In short', it'll then soon result as just being a case of whether you wish to see yourself as then being soundly 'poles apart'...or in 'pole position'.
Be careful that you're not 'charged' too much for the use of the 'growler' or the auto electrician will have indeed 'seen you coming'...rather than have just heard your 'App'roach.
Gas loves renewables...
Hi Mark
I doubt that it will happen by magic. Technology and time are two ingredients, but a third is the need for Homo Sapien to change their behavior. If you want to fix something, you have to change something(s), and our transport modes and choices need fixing.
About nuclear - it is the most expensive option on earth, so much so that any other available technology will always out compete it. It's not safe, there is no waste disposal means, it carries massive social opposition and if that is not sufficient consider this: uranium (and thorium) is a finite resource, and just like oil will eventually run out. If the world switched to nuclear tomorrow by building a hundred thousand nuclear plants, known reserves of uranium might last 5 years.
The next gen nuclear plants? They don't exist yet - the plants being built in the US are old tech.
Lead time for a nuclear plan? ~ 20 years and in Oz, probably the end of democracy.
There is sufficient renewable enrgy available to run the earth, we don't need unsustainable energy. Missing most is social and political will.
Growling
Richard, either you are going to have to do the growling yourself, or you will be able to buy an EV "App" and choose your own sound. They will need to make some noise to make them safe for pedestrians and wandering cats. So the idea is to offer a variety of engine "noises", just like your mobile phone. This is no doubt a business opportunity and a reason to be nervous.
Gas loves renewables, pity about the climate
"even if all EVs from the shock scenario [AGL's model based on the uptake of 6.8 million EVs by 2030] were to hit the NEM on the highest winter demand day in 2009/2010, residential demand during EV charging would still have been lower than the peak that day"
And just where would all the electricity be coming from, during the 'critical peak' or otherwise? On 'the highest winter demand day', not much from solar. Can't count on wind. So of course AGL (Australian Gas Light) is on board with this.
But just how does this "ensure a smooth transition to the decarbonisation of the transport fleet", in anything like the timeframe that the climate needs? In their otherwise blithe skate over this issue, the AGL report admits as much: "over the very long run, electricity is likely to decarbonise at a faster rate than the petrol fleet. To be sure, however, this should be considered a ‘centennial vision’, not a problem to be solved in the immediate term." (my italics). Even the very modest improvements projected in the report are predicated on the assumption of Australia hitting its 2020 Renewable Energy Target, which any reputable commentator will give you very long (and increasing daily) odds on getting anywhere near.
Not. Good. Enough.
Only with the help of nuclear does Australia have any more than a snowball's chance in Hades of enabling EVs to decarbonise transport in the required time.
PV + EV will become the norm
I think EV will be a solution rather than a problem to our energy grid. Since our cars are idle most of the time, we can choose to "fill up" at any off peak time using timers, helping the grid situation. Additionally, the large capacity battery associated with EV's can provide emergency amounts of electricity during blackouts - or can be fed into the grid at peak times to avoid blackouts in the first place. Combined with a PV rooftop generation capacity, this would combine independence from the grid of the battery, with the advantages of generating your own power for no additional cost, whether you have a grid feedin connection or not.
EVs are the future - only one downside.
I have no problem switching my R8 350KW Holden for a Tesla or similar performance EV. The only downside is I will miss the throaty V8 growl terribly. What can be done about this?