a Business Spectator publication

Global warming is real: BEST efforts to trump climate sceptics

New research aimed at addressing the scientific concerns raised by sceptics of anthropogenic global warming has concluded that global warming is real.

The independent study by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project – which analyses temperature data from 15 sources – addresses some of the more well-worn arguments of climate sceptics, including the urban heat island effect (UHI), temperature station quality and the risk of data selection bias.

The UHI effect lies at the heart of the allegations of fraud around Climate Gate. A 2007 paper by Ross McKitrick, an economics professor at the University of Guelph in Canada, and Patrick Michaels, an environmental studies professor at the University of Virginia, concludes that half of the global warming trend from 1980 to 2002 is caused by Urban Heat Island.

According to Skeptical Science, scientists have been careful to ensure that UHI is not influencing the temperature trends in climate research and analysis. "To address this concern, they have compared the data from remote stations (sites that are nowhere near human activity) to more urban sites," says the website.

And now BEST is going to new lengths to debunk this and other science-based climate sceptic theories. "Our aim is to resolve current criticism of the former temperature analyses, and to prepare an open record that will allow rapid response to further criticism or suggestions," says the Berkeley organisation's website. "Our results will include not only our best estimate for the global temperature change, but estimates of the uncertainties in the record."

And while the research is yet to be peer reviewed, a variety of academics and scientists have responded to its release and what it means to the climate debate.

"This new study confirms what we already knew," said Bob Ward, director of policy and communications at the UK's Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment. "The warming of the land areas of the Earth since the 19th century cannot be explained by the impact of cities growing to engulf rural weather stations.

"So-called 'sceptics' should now drop their thoroughly discredited claims that the increase in global average temperature could be attributed to the impact of growing cities, which create an urban heat island effect," Ward said.

"More broadly this study also proves once again how false it was for 'sceptics' to allege that the e-mails hacked from the University of East Anglia proved that the Climatic Research Unit's land temperature record had been doctored. ...It is now time for an apology from all those, including US Presidential hopeful Rick Perry, who have made false claims that the evidence for global warming has been faked by climate scientists."

"This comes as no surprise to climate scientists who take great care to take account of this effect in their work,"  said Professor Dave Griggs, ClimateWorks CEO & Director of the Monash Sustainability Institute. "It also confirms findings from other studies using very different methods. For example, looking at temperature trends on windy days and calm days also show no difference contrary to what you would expect from the urban heat island as the heat would build up more on calm days. So, hopefully this paper will help to put this urban (heat island) myth to bed."

The British government's chief scientific adviser, Professor Sir John Beddington, stressed that the study needed to be peer-reviewed before being factored in to the debate, but that if it was found to be correct, it would conform with US work at NASA and NOAA and that of Phil Jones and his colleagues at the UK Hadley Center-UEA Climatic Research Unit. "This work adds to the evidence about how climate change is happening," he said.

Jones, himself, said that the initial findings were "very encouraging and echo our own results and our conclusion that the impact of urban heat islands on the overall global temperature is minimal."

Peter Cox, a professor of climate system dynamics at the University of Exeter, meanwhile expressed surprise that the authors of the new study were so keen to get for peer-review, "when their conclusions aren't exactly revolutionary."

"These studies seem to confirm the global warming estimated from the existing datasets, which is pleasing but not exactly a surprise to those of us who know how carefully the existing datasets are put together," Cox said.

And Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, director at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, said he hoped that if and when the study was peer reviewed and published, the focus could shift to "the implications for the future of this warming rather than wrangling over whether the warming is really there.”

Comments on this article

Climate change

 

Climate change is actually caused by global warming. It is true and of course we are all deserve to promote global warming. By the way, there is optimum solutions as well. If we use solar power, wind power and hydro power to operate home appliances like Airtron Dayton and other machines and engines in vehicles and industries, the global warming can be reduce in many extents.

 Andrew Kerber,  blaming

 Andrew Kerber,  blaming prudent advocates and embarking on hare brained adventures, is the height of economic irresponsibility.

Whether true of false, the problem of global emissions will not be solved  by our tiny Climate Commission in Canberra,  Australia. I reiterate, coal is the challenge and whilst its use has withstood the passage of time over a long, long time. With currently a  global population of  over 6 billion and rising,  we can face testing times in the future and some rational thinking should be the order of the day instead of throwing hard earned billions all over the place. 

I came across an interesting article today highlighting the dilema we are likely to face and commend it.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/our-greatest-challenge-on-climate-coal-exports-20111021-1mc81.html

Well put, Andrew. I am also

Well put, Andrew. I am also mystified by those claiming that realists think there is no warming.

Actually its Red herring or Straw man

The so called 'climate deniers' or skeptics dont claim that world has not warmed since the end of the little ice age.  They question the science that blames CO2 or other man made conditions as the cause of the warming.  The skeptics also question whether warming is even a problem, since it is well know that a warmer world is more  hospitable to life.

Finally, its clear that whoever published the paper is really seeking publicity since the paper was released prior to any sort of peer review being completed on it.  I would suggest that those gloating over the paper at least wait until some sort of peer review is complete.

Continued

It's impossible to assess the impact of the Opposition's threats to rescind the carbon pricing legislation simply because it is equally impossible to predict the long term damage to our economy as a direct result of the Government's trifecta, consisting of a Carbon Tax, Direct Action Initiatives and, ultimately, a risky Emissions Trading Scheme.

No one in Australia willingly promotes damaging emissions but because we all live in one world it is incumbent on all of us to act in unison. Which, clearly, we do not. The irony being, that we export coal, we shun the use of coal and there is a global push to acquire some of our coal mines.Abbott feels that the Direct Action approach is the way to go, The Green's persuaded Gillard to legislate for a costly hybrid emission reduction scheme partly off budget Direct Action initiatives.

The foundation of both preferences appear to have been built on sand. Hence, tax payers will suffer the consequences. Let us see what transpires in Durban, South Africa. Unlike Copenhagen, this time around Australia hitched the cart before the horse and legislated.

Trumping climate sceptics is immaterial

The world population living on planet Earth is currently estimated to be 6.97 billion. What 24 million Australians do is a mere pin prick in the scheme of things.The real culprit, if one can call it that, is 'coal' which provides cheap electricity generation for the masses. This is evidenced by the fact that the price of thermal coal has risen 30 per cent in the last year and will continue to rise in line with supply and demand.The alternative means of power generation: Wind and Solar is space consuming, unreliable and unattractive. Wind turbines will take many years to get used to and Solar panels are laden with toxic chemicals - Hence, the real dilemma.I invite your attention to my earlier comments on the subject:

Prediction:

Climate sceptics will think "Hmm, maybe all those climate scientists were right all along..."

Climate deniers will take this report as proof that the BEST team have been 'got at' and are now part of the global conspiracy of climate scientists.

 

A slap in the face for the deniers

The most interesting point is the one you left out Sophie.

This 'independent' study was part funded by billionaire climate change deniers the Koch brothers and included well known anti-science pundits Judith Curry and Richard Muller on the team... 

See http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/02/14/207519/exclusive-richard-muller-charles-koch-judith-curry-and-the-implosion-of-the-berkeley-earth-surface-temperature-study/

So now that their OWN research has confirmed what every scientist has known for a decade or more can we expect the anti-science mob to shut up and go back to doubting the link between smoking and cancer?

I wish...