Dan Hansen, the head of the newly rebadged REpower Australia, says it will be difficult to sustain more than three or four wind turbine makers in the Australian market over the long term. Speaking after Indian turbine maker Suzlon announced that it would assume the brand name of its recently purchased German offshoot, REpower, for its operations in Australia, Hansen told Climate Spectator that the competition in the local market is fierce, as rival players bid for contracts that are finally expected to be signed in the next few months after nearly two years of delay.
“That was one of the reasons why the Suzlon group has decided to attack the market as one company instead of two,” he told CS in an interview. It is estimated that there are more than 15 wind turbine manufacturers active in the Australian market – and more than 30 wind farm developers – but Hansen expects only the strongest manufacturers to flourish. “It is difficult to sustain such numbers in a small market.”
Hansen is hopeful that the projects will begin to be mandated because, even if the current flood of renewable energy certificates market extends to 2014/15, projects need to be commissioned in the next six to 12 months to be able to deliver those certificates by that time. He says offers for power purchase agreements are now moving up around the $90/MWh mark. “As soon as it starts to get north of $90/MWh, we should start to see projects starting to move in the better wind regions,” he said. However, many projects will need to get more than $100/MWh to generate a decent return on investments.
Solco slump
WA-based solar company Solco has predicted a sharp fall in revenue for the current financial year, but says sales have recovered in September after a “significant reduction” in July and August and expects this to continue. However, Solco says it now expects revenue to fall to around $41 million in 2011/12, after jumping 56 per cent to $53.7 million in the last financial year as its national solar products division expanded rapidly
Executive chairman David Richardson said the company had invested heavily in risk management and inventory and should be in a good position to capitalise on the market downturn and leverage future benefits from better trading conditions. “The record profit made by the company last financial year has put us in a stable financial position, which I am confident will see us through the downturn,” Richardson said in a statement. The company says it is increasing its market share of power generation projects with a number of small-medium projects across Australia, this includes a 30KW power generation project at the Brookton Health and Aged Care Centre in WA to be opened at the end of the month.
Solar forecasts
Solar manufacturers are likely to be left with mounting piles of inventory and excess capacity in 2012, with many analysts forecasting a fall in sales of solar panels in 2012 after a 40 per cent jump in sales in 2011. Bloomberg New Energy Finance said this week that significant drops in subsidies in key European markets would mean capacity in 2012 would likely be flat or lower than 2011, with installations fall to as low as 23.8GW in 2012 from 24.5GW this year, putting increased pressure on companies that have struggled with falling prices and growing stockpiles.
“That demand during 2011 has been stronger than last year has helped many companies stay alive,” said Martin Simonek, an analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “Next year will be different.” However, forecasts vary widely. Simonek says installations in 2011 could be as high as 29.4GW, while the range for 2012 goes from the base case of 23.8GW to a peak of 31.8GW.
Goldman Sachs last month lowered its forecast for 2012 by 10 per cent to 20.8GW, compared with an estimated 19.6GW this year, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah expects 21GW this year and 25GW in 2012, and silicon maker Wacker Chemie sees 22GW to 26GW this year, while panel manufacturer Yingli Green forecasts 18GW to 19GW this year. Bloomberg’s Simonek said demand may gain in 2013, when cheaper panels make solar energy competitive in more sunny nations and developing economies.
Desert sun
The ambitious Desertec initiative that seeks to bring solar energy from the Sahara to help power homes and industry in Europe hopes to soon unveil its first $800 million power plant in Morocco, according to its project manager. Bloomberg reports that the Desertec initiative, which is back by Siemens, Munich Re and Deutsche Bank, among others, will in a few months unveil its first 150MW plant, the first in a $400 billion network of solar thermal plants, as well as solar PV an wind facilities, that will stretch from Egypt to Morocco.
“I’m very confident that we will see concrete steps in 2012,” Paul van Son, chief executive officer of Dii, the project management company, told Bloomberg in an interview. Morocco is targeted for the first development because the country is stable, has a government that backs renewable-energy expansion and is linked to Europe via two undersea cables, with free capacity of up to 1000MW, across the Strait of Gibraltar.
However, many north African countries are moving ahead with their own projects more quickly than Desertec, Bloomberg noted, with Morocco already accepting bids for a 125MW solar thermal plant in Ouarzazate and targeting 2000MW of capacity by 2020. Other plants have been built in Egypt and n the planning stages elsewhere. “Until Desertec actually puts a project on the ground and provides details on financing and the different stakeholders, it’s nothing more than nice ambition and a series of public announcements,” Bloomberg new Energy Finance analyst Logan Goldie-Scot said.
Cementing a deal
Earth Heat Resources says it has singed a heads of agreement for a power purchase offtake in Argentina with the country’s leading maker of cement, concrete and lime, Loma Negra. The proposed PPA would cover around 10MW of capacity from one of Earth Heat’s geothermal projects in the region. Managing director Torey Marshall said it was a key agreement the underscored strong energy demand and the company was hoping to expand its relationship with Loma Negra and to attract other strategic partners interested in taking output from its projects.
Dan Hansen, the head of the newly rebadged REpower Australia, says it will be difficult to sustain more than three or four wind turbine makers in the Australian market over the long term. Speaking after Indian turbine maker Suzlon announced that it would assume the brand name of its recently purchased German offshoot, REpower, for its operations in Australia, Hansen told Climate Spectator that the competition in the local market is fierce, as rival players bid for contracts that are finally expected to be signed in the next few months after nearly two years of delay.
“That was one of the reasons why the Suzlon group has decided to attack the market as one company instead of two,” he told CS in an interview. It is estimated that there are more than 15 wind turbine manufacturers active in the Australian market – and more than 30 wind farm developers – but Hansen expects only the strongest manufacturers to flourish. “It is difficult to sustain such numbers in a small market.”
Hansen is hopeful that the projects will begin to be mandated because, even if the current flood of renewable energy certificates market extends to 2014/15, projects need to be commissioned in the next six to 12 months to be able to deliver those certificates by that time. He says offers for power purchase agreements are now moving up around the $90/MWh mark. “As soon as it starts to get north of $90/MWh, we should start to see projects starting to move in the better wind regions,” he said. However, many projects will need to get more than $100/MWh to generate a decent return on investments.
Solco slump
WA-based solar company Solco has predicted a sharp fall in revenue for the current financial year, but says sales have recovered in September after a “significant reduction” in July and August and expects this to continue. However, Solco says it now expects revenue to fall to around $41 million in 2011/12, after jumping 56 per cent to $53.7 million in the last financial year as its national solar products division expanded rapidly
Executive chairman David Richardson said the company had invested heavily in risk management and inventory and should be in a good position to capitalise on the market downturn and leverage future benefits from better trading conditions. “The record profit made by the company last financial year has put us in a stable financial position, which I am confident will see us through the downturn,” Richardson said in a statement. The company says it is increasing its market share of power generation projects with a number of small-medium projects across Australia, this includes a 30KW power generation project at the Brookton Health and Aged Care Centre in WA to be opened at the end of the month.
Solar forecasts
Solar manufacturers are likely to be left with mounting piles of inventory and excess capacity in 2012, with many analysts forecasting a fall in sales of solar panels in 2012 after a 40 per cent jump in sales in 2011. Bloomberg New Energy Finance said this week that significant drops in subsidies in key European markets would mean capacity in 2012 would likely be flat or lower than 2011, with installations fall to as low as 23.8GW in 2012 from 24.5GW this year, putting increased pressure on companies that have struggled with falling prices and growing stockpiles.
“That demand during 2011 has been stronger than last year has helped many companies stay alive,” said Martin Simonek, an analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “Next year will be different.” However, forecasts vary widely. Simonek says installations in 2011 could be as high as 29.4GW, while the range for 2012 goes from the base case of 23.8GW to a peak of 31.8GW.
Goldman Sachs last month lowered its forecast for 2012 by 10 per cent to 20.8GW, compared with an estimated 19.6GW this year, Deutsche Bank analyst Vishal Shah expects 21GW this year and 25GW in 2012, and silicon maker Wacker Chemie sees 22GW to 26GW this year, while panel manufacturer Yingli Green forecasts 18GW to 19GW this year. Bloomberg’s Simonek said demand may gain in 2013, when cheaper panels make solar energy competitive in more sunny nations and developing economies.
Desert sun
The ambitious Desertec initiative that seeks to bring solar energy from the Sahara to help power homes and industry in Europe hopes to soon unveil its first $800 million power plant in Morocco, according to its project manager. Bloomberg reports that the Desertec initiative, which is back by Siemens, Munich Re and Deutsche Bank, among others, will in a few months unveil its first 150MW plant, the first in a $400 billion network of solar thermal plants, as well as solar PV an wind facilities, that will stretch from Egypt to Morocco.
“I’m very confident that we will see concrete steps in 2012,” Paul van Son, chief executive officer of Dii, the project management company, told Bloomberg in an interview. Morocco is targeted for the first development because the country is stable, has a government that backs renewable-energy expansion and is linked to Europe via two undersea cables, with free capacity of up to 1000MW, across the Strait of Gibraltar.
However, many north African countries are moving ahead with their own projects more quickly than Desertec, Bloomberg noted, with Morocco already accepting bids for a 125MW solar thermal plant in Ouarzazate and targeting 2000MW of capacity by 2020. Other plants have been built in Egypt and n the planning stages elsewhere. “Until Desertec actually puts a project on the ground and provides details on financing and the different stakeholders, it’s nothing more than nice ambition and a series of public announcements,” Bloomberg new Energy Finance analyst Logan Goldie-Scot said.
Cementing a deal
Earth Heat Resources says it has singed a heads of agreement for a power purchase offtake in Argentina with the country’s leading maker of cement, concrete and lime, Loma Negra. The proposed PPA would cover around 10MW of capacity from one of Earth Heat’s geothermal projects in the region. Managing director Torey Marshall said it was a key agreement the underscored strong energy demand and the company was hoping to expand its relationship with Loma Negra and to attract other strategic partners interested in taking output from its projects.