Has Obama killed the electric car?
Amid all the high-stakes debt ceiling talks of the past couple of weeks, Barack Obama has managed to push through one of the most dramatic and effective bills of his administration – the doubling of fuel economy targets for cars.
In the presence of 13 leading automakers, the US President announced an historic agreement – forged in consultation with said automakers – to increase corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for new cars and light trucks from 27.5 mpg for the 2011 model year to 54.5 mpg for the 2025 model year.
Obama himself described the deal as "the single most important step we've ever taken as a nation to reduce our dependence on foreign oil." And with $1.7 trillion in fuel cost savings expected to flow directly to consumers, Seeking Alpha's John Petersen says that might be an understatement. "I believe Friday's agreement will ultimately be seen as the biggest economic stimulus event in human history," he says.
And while some may think this development could be parlayed into a win for the electric vehicle sector, there are those – like Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne – who think nothing of the sort.
On the contrary. Marchionne, who sees the deal as a stimulus for the US auto industry, told a conference in Michigan last week that EVs were over-hyped as the fuel economy solution, and that carmakers would find ways to squeeze more miles out of internal combustion engines to meet the tough new standards. "You will see incredible results even out of what I consider to be absolutely plain-vanilla technology," Marchionne said. "Between the combination of transmissions and engines, you will find huge benefits going forward."
And he's not alone. A recent Boston Consulting Group report quoted by Petersen found that advanced internal combustion engine (ICE) technologies – which it said would likely become standard equipment worldwide during the next decade – could reduce petrol consumption by 40 per cent. It also suggested that electric cars would face stiff competition from ICE and would not be the preferred option for most consumers.
"In my view," says Petersen, "the BCG report is a must read for investors who want to profit from this fuel efficiency mega-trend and avoid heavy losses in vehicle electrification schemes that will become increasingly uneconomic over time."
So what are carmakers doing to get their conventional engine vehicles up to standard? After all, it's going to be quite a task. As GreenTech Media's Michael Kanellos points out, the current fleet average mileage for new cars coming off the line is 28.3mpg and will have to jump to 34.1 MPG by 2016 (around the time when Marchionne is planning to retire, incidentally).
Here's a look at some of the auto engine technology that's getting folk like Marchionne and Petersen excited: from the plain vanilla, through to the double chocolate fudge.
Diesel: Diesel engines are already known to get better mileage than their petrol counterparts, and new and even cleaner diesels are almost certain to migrate from Europe to the US, says Paul Eisenstein on MSNBC.com's Driver's Seat – like Ford's European Focus model. Chevrolet hopes to get more than 50mpg with its diesel-powered Cruze sedan, announced last month. Volvo also has a diesel hybrid in the works – due for release in 2012 – a V60 that produces 49g/km on the hybrid setting.
Alternative engines: Some experts believe the new CAFE rules may force the industry to migrate towards alternatives to the internal combustion engine, says Eisenstien. And one of the more promising possibilities is the opposed piston/opposed cylinder (OPOC) model, versions of which are being developed by the likes of Detroit-based (Bill Gates-backed) EcoMotors International, as well as Pinnacle Engines. This engine can run on a wide range of fuels – including petrol, ethanol and diesel – and proponents claim it can yield markedly improved fuel economy – 30-50 percent, according to Pinnacle – from an engine a fraction the size of its conventional counterpart.
And there are a number of other alternative engines being touted, says Eisenstein, but they all face the same hurdle: the reluctance of automakers to change having invested so heavily in the development of conventional gas and diesel powertrains. “There’s still a lot of juice left to get out of the orange,” says AutoPacific analyst Dave Sullivan, of the current internal combustion engine. “But being able to spread the cost around,” as makers consider alternatives, may open the door to alternative powertrains.
Microhybrid/Stop-start technology: As the name suggests, these hybrids have very small electric motors that allow a car to get started quickly, and then allow its engine to shut down seamlessly when idling – a feature that can reduce fuel consumption and emissions by up to 12 per cent in conventional petrol-powered vehicles. They're also relatively cheap to install, at an estimated $1,500, versus $5,900 for an advanced "clean" diesel engine and $6,000 for a full hybrid system. And they're also useful in that they can be retrofitted micro-hybrid onto vehicles like buses. Johnson Controls has predicted that the number of vehicles equipped with stop-start idle technology will at least triple within five years, becoming standard issue in 52-55 per cent of vehicles built in 2016, up from 8 per cent in 2010 – a call that was made last month, before Obama's new deal.
General Motors recently announced a 2012 Buick LaCrosse that will come with its eAssist micro technology, that will get 37mpg on the highway. In Europe, three new Citroen C3 models are available with an e-HDi 90 micro-hybrid powertrain with second generation Stop & Start, and fuel economy of 78.5mpg for one and 76.3mpg for two, with CO2 emissions of 93g/km and 98g/km respectively.
Waste Heat: Waste heat is one of the unsung hero's of the global energy efficiency drive and, as Kanellos points out, car engines are particularly attractive sources, with estimates that 85 per cent of the energy injected into engines gets wasted. Thermoelectrics, semiconductor materials that convert heat into electricity, could capture this waste heat, and reduce a vehicle's fuel needs, while also improving fuel economy by at least 5 per cent. Low efficiency and high cost of existing thermoelectric materials has kept them from becoming practical in vehicles, but according to Technology Review, researchers are assembling the first prototype thermoelectric generators for tests in commercial cars and SUVs. "The devices are a culmination of several advances made independently at thermoelectric device-maker BSST in Irwindale, California, and at General Motors Global R&D in Warren, Michigan," says TR. "Both companies plan to install and test their prototypes by the end of the summer – BSST in BMW and Ford cars, and GM in a Chevrolet SUV."
Creative transmissions: Automatic transmissions will continue to add more gears, says Eisenstien, like the 9-speed V6 Chrysler's developing. And others will switch to “manumatic,” or clutchless manuals. Despite its failed IPO, Fallbrook Technologies' invention, the NuVinci, is also intriguing, says Kanellos: "a highly variable transmission that relies on balls instead of gears." At this stage it is mostly geared at light electric vehicles, although the company claims it can improve mileage by 12 per cent to 15 per cent.
Hydrogen: "Perhaps the most radical powertrain solution would migrate the nation’s automotive fleet to hydrogen power," says Eisenstein. "Fuel cell vehicles have the added advantage of producing nothing but water vapor as their exhaust." But as Kanellos points out, there are a few good reasons why automakers aren't rushing to this as a solution. "Hydrogen is dirty to make, you can't transport it easily and the cars cost a ton of money," Kanellos says. But he adds that "hydrogen cars are incredible to drive – better than other all-electrics – and Honda and Mercedes continue to research the concept."
Aerodynamics: As Eisenstein says, "even the most advanced engines will require other significant engineering changes." That means wind-cheating designs capable of boosting a vehicle’s fuel economy by between 5 and 20 percent (goodbye side mirrors? And hello grill shutters); innovative tyre materials and designs that reduce rolling resistance; green audio systems that cut the weight of accessories; and ultra-light carbon fiber for ultra-light chassis, such as BMW has on its new i3 and i8 models.
Comments on this article
Tesla investment by Obama
Did I miss something? The Obama administration has invested $500 Million in Tesla alone. Google it - some very nice full electric cars for family use. Not sure where the headline came from?
Who killed the electric home?
Locally and in the U.S. electricity supplies are currently under threat from blackouts and skyrocketing electricity prices. This is partly inspired by proposed shutdowns of coal fired power and even calls to dismantle hydro power stations in the U.S. This is further exacerbatted by the promotion of unaffordable and unreliable renewable energy, assisted through taxpayer subsidies and legislated targets. The ultimate icing on the cake to threaten electricity supplies and prices is the pending carbon pricing legislation, administered by "independent" bureaucrats.
Given carbon pricing and the other abovementioned factors are killing off electricity as we knew it, it is a little premature, whimsical and contradictory to be concerned about the future of the electric car.
Here's how to encorage the uptake of the electric car
Don't worry about the cost of electricity, it will always be cheaper than the cost of using petrol
Do worry about the cost and performance of batteries, this will be critical in reducing km travelled using petrol in PHEV and the utility of EV's.
Set low litres/100km fleet average standards to ensure PHEV and EV are available for sale.
To reduce CO2 emissions set max kWh/100km standards to ensure ICE monster SUVs are not replaced by electric powered monster SUVs. Ensure CO2/kWh is reduced by replacing coal-fired power by renewable, nuclear and natural gas.
Encourage off-peak and flexible (smart) vehicle charging, fast charging along highways, and off-peak charging at motels.
Here's how to get the electric car
Firstly ensure manufactures must have a low litres/100km fleet average(similar to what is proposed for EU and US). Manufacturers will have to include PHEV's or EV to acheive this fleet average.
Don't worry about the cost of electricity it will always be cheaper than petrol. For those that are concerned offer off-peak charging options.
Do worry about the cost of batteries, this will determine the economics of PHEV and EV's.
Do provide fast charging stations along major highways at rest stops/ service locations/shopping malls.
To ensure low CO2 emissions, set max kWh/100km standards and continue to reduce average CO2 emissions/kWh by replacing coal-fired generation by renewable, nuclear and natural gas.
Thanks Terry
Hi Terry, thanks for your response. I am very interested in the potential markets for Lignin (beyond being a simple coal replacement) as we are developing a cellulosic ethanol project based on Norwegian technology to be located in Aus that will have lignin (in a pure, dry, powdered form) as a byproduct. I am aware of Lignol and will follow up on the other company you mention. Feel free to contact me at shaun.colley@bigpond.com if interested. Cheers Shaun
carbon fiber from lignin
Shaun
A company called Lignol innovations Ltd BC Canada have received funding from USA DOE to build a commercial solvent pulping plant in USA to demonstrate production of lignin and ethanol. I believe recent finance difficulties in USA have extended project start up date.
Much of research on finding a suitable renewable material to produce carbon fiber has come from the research group called ORNL (Fred Baker). Pure lignin from the solvent pulping process has been judged to fit the need.
We are actively involved in putting together a N to S water transfer project, Growing coppiced mallee eucalypts along the canal route on about 10% of farm land appeals to us as a future source of base load power, and feedstock for biofuels, lignin, carbon offset etc that is more cost effective than solar using current technology
Question to Terry Bowring
Hi Terry, thanks for your post. I'm interested to understand how Lignin is used in Carbon Fibre production. What is the application and who might be doing it? If you can point me to a good source of info I would appreciate it. Cheers Shaun
OPOC
Just to be clear an OPOC ia still an internal combustion engine.
Hydrogen may have new hope because of catalyitic water seperators that claim to be able to separate O and H with less energy and heat from a solar concentrator. This is a pretty good solution if it's true as we could pipe pipe H to your house (or the end of the street ) and use a fuel cell to run the house and charge the electric car. Obviously the H also acts as a store of energy for night base load power. If the magic catalist works as advertised
EV FOR LARGER CARS
Part of the improvement in average fuel consumption will come from a reduction in the average vehicle size. We may find that the move to EV and plug in hybrid comes from the large car end of the market. It will help manufacturers keep their averages down.
Let the market decide (again)
I must agree with Paul Harrington - let the motor vehicle industry and their customers decide which technology is best.
I suspect we will have a mix of vehicles over the next few decades. More efficient ICEs, BEVs, PHEVs will all compete in the market and we will buy what best suits our needs and pockets.
So in answer to Sophie's question - no Obama won't kill the electric car. Our failure to develop battery technology to deliver the energy density of oil or gas might.
alternative materials ( carbon fiber)
Pure Lignin from a commercially proven solvent pulping technology has been proven as an excellent renewable feedstock to produce carbon fiber. Oil is the normal feedstock.used for carbon fiber
The lignin is ideally sourced from hardwoods such as Eucalypts which could offer Australia the possibility of offering our car industry a competitive advantage. Wheat straw could also be a suitable feed stock to extract lignin from while converting the remaining cellulose to ethanol.
Carbon fiber could reduce weight of future cars by as much as 50% but more likely only 30%, that is where the improved fuel economy comes from Some Japanese car manufacturers say most of their car bodies will be made from carbon fiber within a decade .
Alternative Materials
Another area for consideration is the reduction in weight through use of carbon fibre and other advanced materials. QHL (an Australian listed Co) has developed a process that is equivalent in expense to steel and aluminium, with curing times of less than 1/4 of an hour as opposed to the 24 hours required for current conventional carbon composites.
High Altitude Dreams
Daniel O'Calleghan might be right about HAWP, and he might be wrong. Until he can point to operating, scaleable, economical versions of the high altitude turbine, all discussion of them is only speculation.
What is not speculation, however, is Daniel's attitude to coal and nuclear power, which happen to be the only two currently available large scale sources of baseload power, the kind of power which drives western societies and which all human societies without reliable electricity want most for themselves. Now Daniel may sincerely believe that coal power is bad (I agree) and nuclear power costs too much to clean up (I don't agree), the very much larger majority of our world's inhabitants disagree absolutely with his hypothesis that an untested nonexistent technology should be anointed as the base load energy technology of the future.
Contributions such as his offer nothing which will help decision makers to bring this world back under its CO2 budget, they only add uncertainty and thus lead to delays in tackling climate change. Nature will not wait.
Maybe Maybe not.
But surely this is the way to make these sort of difficult changes in our community. Consult with industry, set a target. Give industry the time to work out what they think is the best solution and by definition it will be the most economical and or acceptable to the consumer and get out of their way. Don't push a preferred solution down their throats.
No, Obama has NOT killed the Electric Car.
Good work Obama! This will NOT, of course, kill the electric car. The old ICE doesn't really have that much scope for improvement. The listed items are good, but "just continued tinkering". Electric cars are the end game so lets just go for it. Most car makers know this and are quietly (or loudly in some cases) going for it.
Electricity is cheap, compared with petrol
Peter Lang:
Electricity is cheap compared with petrol. That's why you run your stove and clothes dryer on electricity instead of oil heaters they way people used to. It's why suburban trains, trams and trolley-buses run on electricity - put up wires and it's cheaper than petrol.
What is expensive is portable electricity, as is required by cars.
What is expensive is pretending that coal-fired and nuclear powerstations are cheap when you don't factor in the cost of cleaning up the negative impacts on the environment..
What is expensive is procrastinating about what needs to be done until crisis hits, instead of investing in development of alternatives which CAN be as cheap as coal, and on a triple-bottom-line basis could wipe coal off the map.
High altitude wind power is almost ready to do this, and with over 100 times total global energy needs available, and about 80% availability at most places on the globe, HAWP is where we should be.
And if it takes a carbon price to make people stop pretending and procrastinating, so be it!
Here's how to get the electric car;
What we need to do to get the electric car:
First, electricity must be cheap. If it is, electricity will displace gas for heating and oil for land transport - either directly as in electric vehicles or using liquid fuels produced using low cost electricity.
If we want to reduce emissions significantly and fastest, we need low cost electricity. Especially, we need it for the developing countries because these will produce most of the emissions over the next 50 years or so.
So the western democracies need to work on allowing low emisisons electricity to be low cost. Pricing carbon is exactly the wrong approach. Mandating and subsidising high cost generators - like renewables - is exactly the wrong approach. Preventing nuclear, and preventing nuclear from being low cost, is exactly the wrong approach.