Learning from disaster
One of the very few things that climate scientists across the world agree about is that extreme weather events are a likely outcome arising from climate change. There is currently so much evidence from across the world that global weather patterns are changing, it is not difficult to find examples of extreme events.
While the US and Europe freeze under record cold conditions, and infrastructure systems collapse as a result of the ‘unexpected situation’, it is easy to see how countries everywhere are now regularly facing challenges from the environment which were almost unthinkable just a few years ago.
The floods in Queensland are another example of these ‘extreme events’. While statements from weathermen and climate scientists explain how global processes such as the ‘La Nina’ weather system have caused these floods, it brings little comfort to the thousands of householders facing devastation in their homes, or the whole swathes of the farming and mining communities whose very livelihoods are threatened and will remain so for many months to come.
There is no doubt that the clean-up costs and the disruption of our core industrial base will have a big impact on both the state and federal economies, with long-term consequences for Australia as a whole.
What is needed now is to think about what we can learn from this. One clear message is that these weather-related impacts are likely here to stay, and are likely to be more costly than ever anticipated.
When the Stern report on the economics of climate change was published in the UK, followed by the Garnaut report here in Australia, many people doubted the figures, arguing that allocation of federal and state funds in response to such an uncertain area of science was both unnecessary and inappropriate.
The lesson we can take from the disaster which has unfolded in the last few weeks across Queensland and other parts of the nation, is that we have to act now to implement effective measures to adapt to climate change. The concept of the 100-year flood or drought seems, every year, to become more redundant.
The issue we must consider today is how our businesses, federal, state and local governments can adapt our homes, infrastructure, businesses and lifestyles to the changing conditions we are now facing, so that the next time this kind of 'extreme weather event' happens (and it will) we will be in a more secure position to deal with it.
Let us take advantage of this opportunity to rebuild in such a way as to ensure that all infrastructure developments across Australia are more resilient, and the power of nature is recognised within adaptation policies which ensure that urban planning takes account of the impacts of climate change.
Let us make sure that, once and for all, we no longer allow vested interests and private profits to drive our communities into the desperate situations we have been witnessing here these last few days.
Leaving ‘room for the river’ is one of the approaches that has been taken in response to floods in some parts of Europe, and this is certainly a good starting point. If a river floods over its banks and fills up a grassy, vegetated recreational area, the cost of the damage will be miniscule compared to the destruction we have seen along the eavily developed banks of the Brisbane river.
Recognising the value of our wetlands as a buffer to floods is another important consideration, and capitalising on the valuable ecosystem services they provide is another dimension of how our environmental policies must be more closely embedded into our mainstream macroeconomic decision-making practices.
Let us once and for all learn from this, that climate change is real, and we must act now in a concerted fashion, before nature wreaks further havoc on our pitiful attempts to control it.
Dr Caroline Sullivan is an Associate Professor of Environmental Economics and Policy at Southern Cross University
Comments on this article
Where's the heat?
This article makes the presumption that warming is inevitable if nothing is done, together with associated climate disasters. Unfortunately, the planet is not behaving according to this model.
According to the AMSU satellites average worldwide sea surface temperatures are 0.54 F COLDER than 12 months ago. This represents an enormous fall in contained heat. I might add that global air temperatures [AMSU channel 5] are 0.96F COLDER than last year, which is pretty well back to the long term average.
CO2isnotevil
The alarmist drivel that fills these pages is totally irksome. Have none of you alarmists been reading the latest data. The oceans are losing heat and according to the ARGOS system have been since 2003. The global average temperature has virtually flatlined for 15 years. Even Trenberth and Hansen agree that the hottest year is meaningless when we are talking of a few hundreths of a degree. Face realities. The premise said that temps would continue to climb with CO2 emissions. It hasn't happened.
It's time you all learnt some history so when there is a fire or a flood or a drought or a nice day just remember that it has all happened before usually to a greater degree and that it will happen again. You might also look up when the greatest loss of life occurred during human history; during periods of COLD.
Bob Rich PhD says cyclones will be more frequent and more powerful. Total accumulated cyclone energy has been falling for thirty years and is now at a low level. It has been falling since the mid seventies when scientists were predicting a new ice age. Read the data.
Mother Nature teaches who is Boss
The disasters have hit far and wide and too close to home for thousands. Last year it was in Haiti. This yearin Australia it's the end to years of drought, traditionally, as flooding rains. I believe we need to heed the lesson and take responsible action as we continue to use up the earth's resources. It's time to be clever about how we use the Sun, Water, and other elements around us. Payback can be cruel
Qld Floods
Talk about revisionist science!
Not long ago, AGW was going to give us increased temperatures and unremitting drought.
Now:
Floods are "to be expected"!
Record cold is part of "global warming"!
Reminds me of the "Club of Rome report "Limits to Growth" (1972). The world's top scientists predicted world wide famine by the early 1980's.
By then most of the nations that had been starving were exporting food!
In the 200 odd years since Malthus the score has been:
Environmental doomsayers 0
Environment 200.
Unfortunately, our politicians and the bankers have bought the AGW scam and think they should act on it or make money out of it (from us of course).
Spot on
Thank you for this analysis. It is exactly right.
A couple of comments dismiss it because nasty floods have occurred in the past. This is head-in-the-sand thinking. Yes, there is el Nino and la Nina, and Australia's climate has always been extremely variable. However, all of these things have averages, and the averages are climbing.
You can guarantee that there will be more cyclones, of greater average severity, and they will reach further south. You can guarantee more severe and longer droughts, worse bushfires and floods. This is because, as this article has stated, the climate now supplies more energy to fuel the weather.
Wallow in denial if you wish, but you will be responsible for more future suffering. And if you really believe that it's all OK, then why not buy shares in the insurance industry?
:)
Bob Rich, PhD.
Views of Dr Caroline Sullivan on Queensland floods etc.
Dr Sullivan is either very young and has little experience of Australian conditions or is idealogically biased or perhaps both ! The Queensland floods are the worst in 100 years.....well the worst since 1974 actually.......well nearly as bad anyway ! Nothing has changed except for the ability to bring death and disaster onto the TV / 'phone/ screens while it is still occurring ! This emotional drivel about "worst ever" is very tiresome and totally untrue ! Russell Collie's and Sam Lees' comments are spot on ! Adapting to change is what mankind has always been forced to do by all kinds of natural forces and still we survive ! Australian droughts & floods are legendary stuff and deservedly so....many have died proving their severity......but many more survive to fight on and build a better world based on that experience. Someone said "those that forget the mistakes of the past are condemned to repeat them" when referring to warfare but it is applies equally to re-building on a floodplain ! Or beneath an active volcano ! Or ...sorry ! ...I'll stop now, it could be a very long list !
Nature being Nature
The floods in Brisbane are just Natures way of balancing the "Books".Floods are a regular part of renewal and are needed for the health of the globe,it has never been a good idea to build on a flood plain but we are slow learners.
Nature is and always will be chaotic.
God forgives Man forgives but Nature never forgives.
Learnig from disaster
Extreme weather events have always occured as has climate change which is as old as the planet. Don't blame the floods in Eastern Australia on anthrpogenic climate change because most of them (including Brisbane's flood) are not close to the recorded largest floods.
That said I agree our development policies have left much to be desired. New developments in towns like Emerald, Qld are clearly built in the wrong place with the wrong type of structure. Queensland house were built high off the ground for a reason. We should not develop flood plains and should restrict hard surfaces wherever possible in catchment zones. Adaption to floods and other climatic events is likely to be far more successful in limiting future damage from such events however the climate changes.
Our economy will be destroyed, but it needn't be
If we have to contend with such events every few years we will never keep our heads above water. We need to declare a war on climate change and start spending money on reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. I agree that adaptation is important, but if we pass a tipping point, adaptation may become increasingly difficult.
By restructuring the economy to address greenhouse gases and energy efficiency as our number one priorities, and by convincing other countries to do the same (keeping in mind that most are ahead of us already), we will be able to maintain employment and investment and many of the living standards that we now take for granted.
fresh water security
Climate change business risk,fresh water security.