a Business Spectator publication

Sunstruck by rooftop solar

It seems that governments everywhere are continuing to grossly underestimate the enthusiasm for rooftop solar.

The NSW government has been so overwhelmed by applications to install rooftop solar panels that it is poised to cancel its solar bonus scheme altogether, less than three months after reducing the feed-in tariff by 67 per cent.

Applications for rooftop solar installations in the state have already passed the 300MW cap set by the state in its tariff review at the end of October – a level it did not expect to pass until some time in 2012.

But it seems the response from more than 140,000 householders across the state has been so overwhelming that applications are already at 326MW, meaning that some applications from customers who have made non-refundable deposits to solar installers will not qualify for the scheme.

The take-up of solar in NSW has defied all government expectations, even though it was warned by the industry itself that the initial tariff of 60c per kilowatt hour was overly generous and unsustainable. It kicked off in January 2010 with a promise to review the scheme in 2012, or after the installation of 50MW. But that level was reached in less than six months.  

Installations continued to accelerate at a rapid pace and, by the time the review started in October, installation had already topped 100MW with another 92MW of applications. Within a matter of weeks, the applications jumped to more than 300MW, with installations totaling 163MW by year end.

A spokeswoman for the government said the quicker than expected take-up was likely to reflect the “popularity of the 20c tariff”. That might be wishful thinking, because it is certain that nearly all of the 300MW capacity would have been filled by prior applications at the 60c tariff and the extraordinary rush that came on October 27, when the government gave 12 hours notice of the change in the scheme. If that is the case, the scheme will cost consumers about $300 million a year.

The government has yet to formally announce what it will do once the scheme stops – it is simply warning potential consumers that they might think about getting a refundable deposit rather than a non-refundable one – but it’s indicating that it will allow consumers to go to net metering.

The irony is that consumers are probably better off that way in any case, because instead of receiving a gross tariff of 20c per kilowatt hour for electricity produced by their solar panels, and possibly paying more for all the energy they used, they would simply deduct the amount of energy fed into the grid from that consumed in the home.

With prices already above 20c/kWh in some areas, particularly those with time-of-use metering, and destined to quickly rise above it elsewhere, a net metering system would offer a greater hedge against rising costs, peak rates and encourage energy efficiency. Installers say many of the recent customers had already been opting for net metering systems rather than the 20c gross tariff.

Russell Marsh, the policy director of the Clean Energy Council, says the demand for rooftop solar has been seriously underestimated, particularly as a hedge against rising electricity prices, which are mostly being driven by upgrades to existing generation facilities, and transmission and distribution systems, particularly to meet peak demand. “You don’t need extremely generous tariffs to drive demand,” he says.

Still, the industry is frustrated that uncertainty will remain after the state election in March. “There is no information on what happens next, or what happens to those applicants who may not get included in the scheme,” says John Grimes, the head of the Australian Solar Energy Society, the industry’s peak body. “This is a significant industry and probably employs 7000 people in NSW. I can’t think of another industry that employs that number of people that would be treated this way. “

Solar boom in Europe

NSW is not the only jurisdiction to seriously underestimate the power of feed-in tariffs and consumer demand. France has had a similar problem, and despite implementing two tariff cuts in 2010 it has been so overwhelmed by demand that it has suspended approvals for installations of 3kW or more until it completes a review. In 2008, France had just 7,100 solar rooftop installations, but applications were running at 3,000 a day by the end of 2010. The target of 5,400MW of solar by 2020 is expected to be met within the next 12 months.

The suspension came after reports that farmers were building empty and unused barns simply to put solar PV on the roof. The government is now considering a tendering system for commercial solar, similar to that proposed by the ACT and discussed by the former Victorian Labor government, as a way of more effectively matching demand and falling production costs.

Germany – the world’s largest solar PV market – is also accelerating its tariff cuts after concluding that the reductions already implemented were unlikely to slow demand. The tariff cuts announced last year had been expected to cut demand to 5000MW in 2010, but more than 7000MW was installed, and this is expected to grow again this year. The German government has announced a sliding scale of tariff reductions depending on demand. At least Germany has a solar manufacturing industry of its own and the policy is doing what it was designed to do – create demand and reduce production costs.

Comments on this article

True cost of coal powered electricity

 

We often forget the real cost of producing electricity from coal. If we take into consideration all the land which has been lost for open cut mining, power stations, substation, rail and transport corridor and transmission towers and put a little bit of value on our environment, the cost of solar power would come out well in front of coal powered electricity. The massive amounts of water required at power stations to create steam and to provide for cooling adds to the cost of all water consumed and indirectly everyone pays more, if living in a city or using water as a farmer or a business. If we estimate that coal-powered electricity emits about 40% more carbon dioxide than ceramic fuel cells and 100% more than solar power, should we put some value on carbon?

I am sure if some truly independent costing is done (not a nice dinner with a coal industry lobbyist), then our Governments would increase efforts to push for more solar installation and the widespread use of ceramic fuel cells. 

 

Where is it when we need it?

As a safety requirement solar systems are required to cutout when the mains voltage drops below 210vac to 215vac.

This poses an interesting problem; on a hot day over Christmas my solar system cut out with an error message which defined a mains undervoltage problem,  the voltage was around 205vac.  This means that in periods of sunny days and high temperature when everyone is using their airconditioners many solar systems will cut out when they are most required, mine did not produce very much power that day.  There seems to be a need to review the safety aspects here otherwise we are shooting ourselves in the foot!

In the Dark

You have just produced your quota for the day, its in the bank, use some of Country Energy's and you will still be in credit.

In the dark

What happens at night time with our PV panels?

Why Not - Agree with Neil

I live in Tweed Heads have a 3 kW system, last 3 monthly bill was a credit of $451 - and that's with west facing panels. 

I monitor power usage closely, the biggest and unavoidable power hungry appliances are the refrigerators, a necessity!

Small aircons run at about 10 cents and hour, but they are not on all day.

Every home should have an Australian Government subsidised power generation plant on their roof.

 

Not Expensive

I live in Perth and have a 2 kW system. The grid cost of electricity here is 21c/kWH. My system on average produces electricity at 17c/kWH, thats without any subsidies. With the commonwealth REC subsidy on construction that drops to 8 c/kWH. The state Net feed in of 47c/kWH is just a bit of extra gravy and not really important.

This is a no brainer for any owner-occupier who has a  suitable roof.

Same Stupid Govt - same stupid management

I read today that the NSW Govt is to support a solar farm at $150M that will provide green electricity to 10,000 homes.

Smart work, that’s $15000 per home and the profits/rebates/incentives go to the supplier and installer of the solar farm.
Wouldn't it be smarter to get 10,000 home owners to install 2-3kW systems and give these home owners a credit from a power company instead of a bill rather than funnelling our money into the pockets of already extremely rich individuals whilst everyone's power bills increase.
Labor Governments have great difficulty in thinking outside the square, they don’t consult with users.

Give the power to the people - the State and Federal Governments are propping up big business while failing the people of Australia with lack of real support for solar uptake. Why should Germany, with their geographical location be the world’s largest supporter of solar uptake of roof top systems?
We need some leaders who will lead us and provide the right environment for all Australians to reap the benefits of the abundant sunshine we all enjoy.

 

Energy Self-Sufficiency

There are so many externalities and subsidies (another form of externalities?) that establishing the true cost of anything is virtually impossible. At a more practical level, the retail price of electricity on the WA South West grid can be expected to rise above the current WA net feed-in tariff before the scheme expires, if it is not cut short. Nevertheles, the real return on investment in a PV system is not to be found in a feed-in tariff but in a switch from fossil fuel motoring to electric motoring. That would also be the point in time to disconnect from the grid and cut short any increase in grid connection charges. Whichever way I calculate it, household-level energy self-sufficiency seems the way to go. I wouldn't be at all surprised if this would also hold true for many businesses.

Giles, Sunstruck by renewable energy

It is amazing to see how many people, and journalists are sunstruck by renewable energy.  This is despite the fact non-hydro renewables are not viable without massive subsidies.  Thye are totally uneconomically.  They are damaging our economy.

 

The same people who have a religious-like belief in renewables, despite the incontravertible evidence they are not viable and unlikely to ever be viable, also have a religious-like belief in catastrophic man-made climate change (CAGW).  It doesn't give me much reason to trust anything they say. 

Embedded Generation

Solar should help to reduce electricity prices rises - the peaking of solar electricity production is well matached to the air conditioning demand load in cities.  So increasing the level of solar panels should reduce the need for distribution companies to increase their peaking capacity of the distribution wires.  However, given the regulatory system is largly driven by return on investment, you can expect distirbution companies to continue to build capacity as this allows them to increase the distribution charge per unit of electricity.

We are all paying for subsidies

It seems that a number of people believe that it matters whether the government pays for a subsidy or whether it is imposed upon consumers.  Also, not paying for the externality of pollution imposes a cost on all of society.  I believe it is important to understand the cost of the subsidy per unit of energy and who pays for it.

In the previous NSW solar bonus scheme, NSW electricity consumers cross-subsidised the power produced at up to 60c/kWh for each kWh regardless of whether it was used in the home or exported to the grid.

Additionally, the previous RET scheme would mean that these solar installations would receive approximately 17.5c/kWh from all Australian electricity consumers also regardless of whether or not they ever exported a single kWh.  This year they will receive 16c/kWh.  In both cases all this forecast electricity (15 years) is paid up-front as a subsidy.

There are a number of papers suggesting that rooftop PV needs 40c/kWh.  Interestingly a PV owner that got in last year could be paid almost 80c/kWh to sit at home and consume all their power for their aircon, plasma TV and other appliances in the heat of summer and get everyone else to pay for it. A sweet deal?

Rort

I looked at installing a solar system 5 years ago but due to overshadowing had to leave it.  Looking at todays prices of reputable brand panels compared to 5 years ago they have actually increased in value !  and that is with a 20% improvement in the currency!  Where are the great economies of scale we were promissed? 

Australian Government is Keen on being seen as Green

Really solar is great and very house should have their own mini power house. Correct sizing of the roof top system means you need to "buy" little or no power from the grid.

Isn't this the ideal outcome, or am I missing something?

These incentives for solar energy and efficiencies from these should be rewarded and assistance should come from the Federal Government first - States should offer further incentives to reduce the need for the building of extra power stations.

Here is an opportunity for the ALP to provide real GREEN leadeship instead of GREEN TAXES. But no - they just keep considering ways to punish the citizens of this once great country, they are always putting their grubby hands in our pockets with carbon taxes and lack of real management skills.

In NSW it won't suit the ALP now they are "giving away" all the power stations, they don't give a hoot about the citizens there, proroguing Parliament so they dont really work at governing for around 3 months.

Fuel excise rebates?

David, do you have a source for your figure of $450m rebates of fuel excise tax for the coal industry? I'm interested to find out more, given that I was arguing that coal doesn't get subsidies.

the local must be best fallacy

If goods and services are always most efficiently sought locally, why don't you find your nearest cobbler and ask him to make your shoes from scratch rather than buying them from a big store with all its expensive logistics involved in bringing the shoes from some far away shoe factory?

The fact is that large power stations benefit from economies of scale and this offsets the costs entailed in transporting the electricity to our homes. Whether this ends up making it cheaper than locally-produced electricity just depends on the input costs of each. Energy conversion figures are a red herring - it's economic efficiency that matters.

This is where points about subsidies or pricing in environmental externalities come in. Setting aside the NSW govt. and its Corrobra coal mine plans, "coal subsidies" are something of a myth. It's solar that gets all the subsidies and handsome ones at that.

And while I can see why some argue for solar subsidies to "even the playing field" in the absence of a carbon price, bear in mind that the CPRS was predicted to lead to a carbon price in the order of $30/tonne. That would be less than 3c/KWh on black coal generation - nowhere near 60, let alone 20.

There's rebates and then there's subsidies!

Hunter Valley coal miners received over $450M in fuel excise rebates for digging the black stuff out of the ground last year... makes rebating $250-300M on clean solar energy look like a much better and forward looking scheme if we're really interested in reducing carbon pollution

Who pays

Apologies, the readers who pointed out that all consumers pay for the tariffs rather than the government are quite right and i've amended the article accordingly.

a couple of questions

How will the scheme cost the government $300m a year? My understanding of the scheme is that the subsidy is paid by the distributors who then charge it on to the generality of electricity customers via the retailers. The distributors are also entitled to pass through their costs of administering the scheme, which was looking like adding at least another $150m (over several years) to bills until the scheme was reined in. The other cost is of course the capital subsidy under the SRES, which is picked up by retailers and passed on in the form of higher bills as well. So where does the government come into it?  

Second question - is the price paid for domestic PV 20c/KWh as you suggest, or is that figure the premium - i.e. the total paid includes the actual energy value, which brings it up to around 27c/KWh, which surely still exceeds most tariffs?

Why so small

I recently met a small startup solar cell manufacturer in Taiwan, one of dozens of new startups in 2010. They showed me their plans for the next 5 years but what attracted my attention was that in their first 6 months they produced 300MW of solar cells.

So, the 3 year NSW government "program" had a target equal to the output of a single, small, startup manufacturers production in its first 6 months.

Actually 300MW (if it was ALL connected to the 60c tariff) would be more like $250 million per year - about the price of two joint strike fighters, except that about 120,000 households get a direct benefit and 300MW of new generation and distribution capacity does not need to be found. It is a blatant lie to suggest that this money will "come from the government" It is paid for by electricity consumers.  If my memory serves me right, to upgrade the electricity infrastructure neglected by the government will actually cost somewhere in the region of $20,000,000,000.

Power to the People

I can’t believe that the NSW scheme has been scrapped. It is very rare for a Government to do a good thing and as soon it becomes successful we see the end of it. The installation of micro power station such as solar panels or ceramic-fuel cells (Bluegen for example) provide a very cost effective and environmentally positive way to secure electricity supplies in Australia. It has been estimated that about 40% of all energy used to generate electricity is been lost in transmission. The generation of electricity at low voltage close to users makes sense and reduces the demand on new massive power stations and huge ugly power lines. Australia needs both, an effective electricity generation industry and local power generation. The feed-in tariffs also provide incentives for people to use power wisely, mainly during times of lower demand. It helps to reduce peaking demand and lower costs to other users, especially industry and commerce

i wonder

Part of me is very happy to see an increasing amount of decentralised / locally produced energy being installed.  It makes sense to try and generate energy as close to the point of use, as this cuts out the loss of energy due to transmission.

Part of me knows that roof top solar is not the best way to get renewable energy installed. Far better to offer incentives to say industrial companies to install solar at their ware houses and factories as this will generate a much larger bang for buck.

As for me, well I'd love to get some solar water and electricity installed on my house, but due to my neighbours tree over shadowing my entire house, and the council firmly telling me that it helps to enhance the general emenity of the area, I'm stuck with being as frugal as I can be with my energy usage as I'm not going to be able to bring down my costs in any other way.

Flood mitigation

Every kW of rooftop PV is a small step towards less violent climate in the future.

If coal is so good, let's see how it goes with no subsidies and proper costing of the environmental damage it causes.

Let them eat Cake!

If these are so good and make economic sense lets see how many are sold when these rebates cut out?

The $300 million would be much more productivly spent on the floods rebuilding program