Based on the lives of fictional people, these two tales contrast a business-as-usual, fossil fuel future out to 2050 and beyond (Bleak House), with a more optimistic future (Great Expectations) in which new clean technologies have been rapidly adopted to provide citizens with safe and secure energy services at all times, at a relatively cheap price, while also giving a reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions.

In reality, the world might end up being somewhere between these two scenarios in 40 years' time.

Bleak House

2015 – On a day with yet another record high temperature, Jay was not too surprised to hear his office air conditioner being turned off automatically at 5pm by the power utility to avoid exceeding the peak load capacity of the supply system. The brand new office building had been designed and built by the engineering company that now used it as their headquarters. Jay had worked for them since graduating last year with the same Bachelor of Engineering degree that his father had received 30 years earlier.

He left work to drive home through the city suburbs, knowing that the roads would be congested all the way at this time of the evening. However, crawling along in the traffic did give him time to read the many advertising signs, especially those posted everywhere from the government saying: “A bright future is assured – our coal resources will last for decades.”

However, the billboards didn’t mention that the world price of coal had soared in recent months, due to the rapidly growing demand after the end of the global financial crisis in 2011. With the local natural gas fields nearing depletion, a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal was under construction on the coast. However, perceived risks had constrained the planned expansion of the national gas distribution network and led to the electricity demand increasing even faster than had been anticipated...

To read the full text of Bleak House, click here.

Great Expectations

2015 – Joy sat comfortably in her sunny new office. Having recently graduated with a Bachelor in Sustainable Energy and Building Design, she was less in awe than some of her older colleagues that the building remained comfortable all year round while using only a third as much electricity compared with the similarly sized, 1980s, tinted glass building across the road.

Since the District Plan approved in 2012 had ensured that all new buildings would have solar water heaters installed, the architects had integrated solar panels into the roof and followed stringent design and orientation guidelines in the building code to enable the building to capture solar heat in winter, gain shade in summer, and benefit from natural ventilation and natural light. The small extra capital costs involved would soon be paid off by the electricity savings made. Joy’s new job involved explaining to other building owners where the benefits of energy efficiency lay.

At 5pm, her message device told her the next electric bus with a seat available would be outside her office building at 17:09 hours. On the route home she always enjoyed catching a glimpse of the wind turbines on the hills since she had invested in a small ownership share, as had many others living in the vicinity. Early concerns over the variable power output had been largely overcome by more accurate weather forecasting; integration of demand-side management controls, and the construction of a back-up bioenergy combined heat and power (CHP) plant. In addition, the operators of the local network had been trained to run a more flexible system, giving priority access to local wind, bioenergy and solar generation before importing any power from the national grid.

On reaching her small, terraced house, she could just hear the low hum of the ground source heat pump which had been extracting heat from inside the house intermittently during the day as the ambient temperature rose. The meter in the entrance showed at a glance that the house had experienced a steady temperature of 20^oC all day long; the solar hot water temperature had risen to 62^oC with no need for any electric back-up; and the payment currently being made to the local power company was only $0.08/hr, mainly for the refrigerator. Even at this low cost, Joy still liked the idea of generating some of her own power on-site, with any excess to be sold to the grid...

To read the full text of Great Expectations, click here.

Epilogue

These two visions are presented simply to stimulate the reader to contemplate the question of what sort of world people may want to inherit. They are examples of possible futures with very different but plausible outcomes, based on the social and political choices being made today. Both are based around the deployment of technological developments and market realities that could, at least in theory, occur in many countries. Either scenario could conceivably occur during the next few decades. Whether people, in general, would be happier with their lifestyles under one scenario more than the other is difficult to assess. Certainly it seems today that ready access to abundant supplies of energy for many people, mainly in OECD countries, does not appear to increase their “happiness rating” above those with access only to basic energy services (assuming they have sufficient food and clean water supplies).

Significant investment in appropriate RD&D today is essential if the desired transition to a Great Expectations energy future is to be achieved. Accepting the strong likelihood that there will be technological developments by 2050 that have not even been thought of today, there still remains the opportunity for the present generation to influence the sort of world we would like future generations to inherit.

Figure 1. Producing significant shares of heat, power and biofuels from locally available resources including solar, wind, ocean, geothermal, energy crops and biomass from wastes, could be a future option for a municipality.

Ralph E H Sims is a Professor at Massey University, New Zealand.

This article has been modified from the “Vision” contained in the 2009 International Energy Agency publication, Cities, Towns and Renewable Energy – Yes In My Front Yard, also written by the Ralph Sims.