a Business Spectator publication

What does Durban mean for green investment?

LONDON (Reuters) - Over 190 countries secured a last-ditch deal on Sunday to save the planet from global warming, which should legally bind developed and developing countries to greenhouse gas emissions cuts.

Negotiations for the new deal will start next year, and it should be signed by 2015 at the latest, but the commitments will not take effect until after 2020.

Below are key questions for low-carbon energy investors.

Q. Will the deal boost low-carbon investment?

A. Not in the short term.

While a new legally binding deal is being worked out by politicians, investments in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power will still be affected by the wider economic climate, which has made it difficult to raise capital.

"It is better than nothing but will not open floodgates and allow vast amounts to be invested in next few years," said Richard Nourse, managing partner at renewable energy investment fund Novusmodus.

Over the next few years, significant growth across renewable energy sectors will depend on national governments to give clear and consistent market signals to investors so that private sector capital can flow at the speed and scale needed.

"EU and national policies will remain the primary driver for investment in clean tech, at least until the detail and strength of international political commitment behind the deal becomes clearer," said Richard Salomone, energy adviser at the UK manufacturers' organization EEF.

HSBC estimates that $10 trillion in capital expenditure will be required from 2010 to 2020 for low-carbon energy alone.

But a dire economic environment is forcing many clean energy firms to postpone investments or diversify their portfolios to survive, and record low carbon prices are not high enough to spur utilities' investment in renewables.

Solar panel makers have seen their profit margins nearly erased this year as prices for renewable energy systems plummeted by about 40 percent, forcing some into bankruptcy and others to seek mergers to survive.

Wind power is struggling to compete with cheaper natural gas and depends on government support.

"The modest achievements at Durban point to some policy upside to our forecast of a low-carbon energy market valued at $2.2 trillion in 2020. The size of this upside is now all to play for," said Nick Robins, climate analyst at HSBC.

Q. What about investment in the longer term?

A. In the longer-term, the emergence of an international deal could reinforce national policies and help spur investment, analysts said.

However, much will depend on the exact form of the international deal by 2015 and how deep countries' legally binding emissions cuts go.

"While we now have a road map and an ambitious timetable, the precise destination remains unclear. Even the length of the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol was parked," said analysts at PriceWaterhouse Coopers.

"There is still a 40 percent gap between the 2 degrees climate goal and emissions targets through to 2020. Reaching 2 degrees will require a revolution in how we produce and use energy."

Pension funds have often been touted as huge sources of capital, but they need much stronger and more consistent policies before they will invest large sums of money in clean technology firms or specific projects.

"A significant amount of private sector capital would be unlocked if mechanisms shifted decisively the risk-return balance in favor of low carbon investments," said Stephanie Pfeifer, executive director of the Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, representing 77 climate investors with assets totaling 7.5 trillion euros.

Q. What is the impact of a second phase of Kyoto?

A. The decision to extend the Kyoto Protocol to a second phase from 2013 was initially seen as a positive sign by investors in Kyoto's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which gives developed nations and firms carbon offsets in return for investing in carbon-cutting projects in poor nations.

But uncertainty remains about whether Kyoto will be extended until 2017 or 2020 and over which U.N. carbon offsets generated by the scheme would still be eligible for trade.

"It is too early to prescribe a value of this outcome to any of our investments in (that sector)," said Max Slee, alternative energy analyst at UK-based investment manager Ecofin, which has $1.9 billion of assets under management.

CDM investors say the European Union will have to clarify which offsets it will accept in its emissions trading scheme for market confidence to increase.

Chinese wind developers could benefit from the extension.

"(They) had ascribed only a low possibility to carbon income for wind farms registered (in the CDM) after 2012, but the continuation of Kyoto takes this possibility much higher," said Alexander Ivanovitch, managing partner and portfolio manager at the Environmental Investment Partnership hedge fund.

"This is not without risk. For example, new CDM registration may restrict or impose a cap volume from China, which could affect the value of carbon income from China."

Comments on this article

Green investment is became

Green investment is became essential for growth of country. Ministers are trying for global warming of that country green investment is major factor. As mentioned in above article all these development factors should be carried out legally. Carbon investment is complimentary factor for this development.
http://www.financemetrics.com/articles/money/saving

I love economic rationalists

Give us a break Richard...the subsidies you refer to are for established and proven technologies that are providing income to the Governments that provide them....what is unpalateable is subsidies thrown to a black hole where there is little hope of an economic return. The 'valley of death ' is irrational basket case thinking which one can only ascribe to the current crop of pollies who haven't  a commercial bone in their bodies.

I love economic rationalists

Who can't see any need for government intervention in the markets until the markets threaten to destroy the global economy. Then they give us TARP, QE1 2 and 3, and the world's worst economic convulsion in 80 years.

One reason so many solar companies have curled up their toes lately is because the Chinese are eating everyone's lunch. The government's plan to massively increase domestic solar capacity might have something to do with that.

But if we're going to scrap government subsidies for renewables, let's also get rid of the remote diesel fuel rebate which saves miners billions, stop guaranteeing coal mines as in NSW recently, and outlaw sweeteners like the massive north-coast gas projects have been offered by WA and NT govts.

Personally, I appreciate technologies like the microwave oven in my kitchen, radar and the Internet, all of which were initially developed with government funding. Getting new tech through the uncommercial 'valley of death' is no more 'gun to the head' than asking citizens to pay taxes to fund a national health scheme or education system.

Companies like Solyndra, Sunpower, Spectrawatt & Evergreen Solar

give us ample evidence that there are no legitimate green investments, but only green graft.  These companies can only be founded with the heavy hand of government pulling them along.  Jim Simpson's point below is correct.  If anyone believes in the necessity and efficacy of green power then, by all means, invest your own money in the project, but please take that gun away from my head and stop telling me that my money is to be used to fund these fanciful projects.

Why Wait

Nice to see a touch of reality creeping in here. Every Green investment I have touched in the past has gone belly up without a shred of progress to ' sustainable renewable energy '. One can but hope Warren Buffett can see something most others haven't yet bearing in mind his main interest is in money !

Why Wait?

There's absolutely nothing stopping any one from putting their money where their mouth is and investing in any one of the grand renewable energy schemes.  Just put your Business Plans together, develop an IPO and take it to the market . 

No need for more govt subsidies nor handouts.  That's already been done to death and the general public has had a enough.  

There will presumably be no shortage of investors from those who believe CO2 is a pollutant (really.. where's the evidence?) and the PRIMARY driver of global warming (keh? cooling more likely over the past decade or so!) so come on, get to it.  No need to delay.  Your time has come.  Make it happen with some of your own investment capital for a change.