'Missing' global heat may be hiding in deep oceans
(Reuters) - The mystery of Earth's missing heat may have been solved: it could lurk deep in oceans, temporarily masking the climate-warming effects of greenhouse gas emissions, researchers reported on Sunday.
Climate scientists have long wondered where this so-called missing heat was going, especially over the last decade, when greenhouse emissions kept increasing but world air temperatures did not rise correspondingly.
The build-up of energy and heat in Earth's system is important to track because of its bearing on current weather and future climate.
The temperatures were still high -- the decade between 2000 and 2010 was Earth's warmest in more than a century -- but the single-year mark for warmest global temperature was stuck at 1998, until 2010 matched it.
The world temperature should have risen more than it did, scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research reckoned.
They knew greenhouse gas emissions were rising during the decade and satellites showed there was a growing gap between how much sunlight was coming in and how much radiation was going out. Some heat was coming to Earth but not leaving, and yet temperatures were not going up as much as projected.
So where did the missing heat go?
Computer simulations suggest most of it was trapped in layers of oceans deeper than 1,000 feet during periods like the last decade when air temperatures failed to warm as much as they might have.
This could happen for years at a time, and it could happen periodically this century, even as the overall warming trend continues, the researchers reported in the journal Nature Climate Change.
"This study suggests the missing energy has indeed been buried in the ocean," NCAR's Kevin Trenberth, a co-author of the study, said in a statement. "The heat has not disappeared and so it cannot be ignored. It must have consequences."
Trenberth and the other researchers ran five computer simulations of global temperatures, taking into account the interactions between the atmosphere, land, oceans and sea ice, and basing the simulations on projected human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.
These simulations all indicated global temperature would rise several degrees this century. But all of them also showed periods when temperatures would stabilize before rising. During these periods, the extra heat moved into deep ocean water due to changes in ocean circulation, the scientists said.
(Reporting by Deborah Zabarenko in Washington, editing by Chris Wilson)
Comments on this article
Oh, oh, here we go again!
As many are aware, Climate Model Projections of Ocean Heat Content anomalies did not anticipate this last 10 years of flattening in global warming.
The linear trend of the ARGO observations of heat content in the upper 700 metres of the oceans is only approximately 7% of the trend projected by the model mean of the IPCC's GISS Model-E.
My first simple question is.
Show me why some years this 'deep ocean heat sink' didn’t mask global warming and now for the last 10 or so years it conveniently has?
It’s not like that 'big heat sink' was suddenly removed!
I’d like to see some supporting observations, otherwise this is just speculation for something that Kevin Trenberth (AGW's 'god in his own mind') is doggedly trying to explain away with a wave of his utterly evidence-free divine hand i.e. the miserable failure of the global climate models.
My second simple question is:
Why are these types always called Kevin?
Heat does not fall?
Who wrote anything, anywhere, that the oceans are experiencing a temperature inversion.
Deep water is cooler than surface water, and I can find no literature indicating otherwise. The only reports I can find, that are relevant, indicate that the ocean depths may not be as cool as they were. That still represents heat transfer.
As to how - well that is easy. For a period, there seemed to be a mystery as to where all the CO2 had gone. Ie, when you calculated how much CO2 had been pumped into the atmosphere, then it looked like some was missing.
Then they found out what was happening. The great subduction zones along the antarctic coast were not only taking cooled surface water down to the ocean depths, but also taking a lot of CO2 with them.
So given this CO2 transfer, why would anyone be surprised that the same process was also taking heat from the atmosphere, down to the ocean depths?
heat does not FALL
what is wrong with you lot,heat does not fall it rises!!
Ever heard of a gravity thermo syphon,where did these people learn their basic primer.
Heat trapped deep in the ocean ,good God a miracle of stupidity!They cannot be serious.
Heat and eddies
There are a bundle of reasons why Argo wouldn't detect it, from the way eddies work on the mixing to the fact that it could be taken to the lower parts of the ocean through the usual routes. This wouldn't show up on Argo because the heat would move rapidly to the ocean floor.
The temp pause between 1940-80 has been ascribed to Sulphur dioxides and increased particulates. We could be seeing something similar as economies like China and India increase their visible emissions.
As scientists themselves admit, they don't have all the answers, but the relationship between carbon and temperature has been empircally established as you can see at http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-co2-enhanced-gree...
Heat is still in
For goodness sake Alvin, the heated water has to fall from the surface to the deep to warm it right ? So as this heat is falling don't you think Argo would detect it moving through the top 2 Km ?
Yes, temperature increases have taken a pause - a lot like the period between 1940 and 1980 when CO2 levels steady rose. This time the world is watching closely and science doesn't have all the answers.
What about sea level?
I agree that more mixing than expected is a likely resolution, but I would have thought this would have been detectable by the sea level rising faster than expected.
OTOH, if melting of land-based ice has been overestimated a little that could account for it. One kj spent on melting ice would add 3 ml to ocean volume, whereas spent on warming deep water it would add only 0.05 ml. (Did I calculate that correctly?)
Heat is still in
For goodness sake. The deep ocean currents are well below the Argo buoys. The fact is the heat is coming in but not exiting, so it is still in the Earth system somewhere.
I would be very concerned if the warmth is going into the deep oceans as this could have significant effects on the overturning of the major thermohaline currents that contribute a great deal to our climate.
Scientists strongly suspect the Southern circumpolar current played a key role in the end of the last ice age because of a sudden upwelling caused by a warmer current which released immense amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.
Oh, and temperatures haven't stopped climbing, they have just slowed a little.
'Missing' global heat may be hiding in deep oceans
And they wonder why they can't sell the anthropogenic global warming or climate change message!! All theory, computer modelling, etc. When will the evidence be put on the table for scrutiny?
Lost, stolen or strayed / predicted global heat rise?
Ocean good place to look. Not many people with the required means to argue. Arse covering?
Geoff C
Hot air falls !!!
So now the computer models are predicting that instead of causing water to rise, heat now causes water to fall !! Don't you think that the Argo bouy's would have picked this up ?